Key takeaways
As the original cryptocurrency launched in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, bitcoin has had its share of vociferous supporters and detractors spanning the gamut of journalists, investors, regulators and influencers.
As the digital assets space has matured the role of bitcoin has not diminished, and it remains the largest digital asset by market capitalization.
Furthermore, with the continued maturation of digital assets, more investors—both retail and institutional—have growing interest in understanding them and how they may fit into their portfolios.
In this paper,
- We aim to provide a foundational framework for thinking about bitcoin in a multi-asset portfolio, based on its trading parameters, investment characteristics, risk factors, potential role as a store of value and as a diversifier.
- We also provide some allocation guidance for investors who are interested in adding bitcoin to their portfolios, based on a risk-first approach and a realistic assessment of the wide range of possible outcomes.
- Lastly, we contrast the three predominant ways to get bitcoin exposure: spot, futures and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) registered under the Securities Act of 1933.
WHAT ARE THE RISKS?
All investments involve risks, including possible loss of principal.
Equity securities are subject to price fluctuation and possible loss of principal.
Fixed income securities involve interest rate, credit, inflation and reinvestment risks, and possible loss of principal. As interest rates rise, the value of fixed income securities falls. Low-rated, high-yield bonds are subject to greater price volatility, illiquidity and possibility of default.
Active management does not ensure gains or protect against market declines.
Investment strategies which incorporate the identification of thematic investment opportunities, and their performance, may be negatively impacted if the investment manager does not correctly identify such opportunities or if the theme develops in an unexpected manner.
Blockchain and cryptocurrency investments are subject to various risks, including inability to develop digital asset applications or to capitalize on those applications, theft, loss, or destruction of cryptographic keys, the possibility that digital asset technologies may never be fully implemented, cybersecurity risk, conflicting intellectual property claims, and inconsistent and changing regulations. Speculative trading in bitcoins and other forms of cryptocurrencies, many of which have exhibited extreme price volatility, carries significant risk; an investor can lose the entire amount of their investment. Blockchain technology is a new and relatively untested technology and may never be implemented to a scale that provides identifiable benefits. If a cryptocurrency is deemed a security, it may be deemed to violate federal securities laws. There may be a limited or no secondary market for cryptocurrencies.
Digital assets are subject to risks relating to immature and rapidly developing technology, security vulnerabilities of this technology, (such as theft, loss, or destruction of cryptographic keys), conflicting intellectual property claims, credit risk of digital asset exchanges, regulatory uncertainty, high volatility in their value/price, unclear acceptance by users and global marketplaces, and manipulation or fraud. Portfolio managers, service providers to the portfolios and other market participants increasingly depend on complex information technology and communications systems to conduct business functions. These systems are subject to a number of different threats or risks that could adversely affect the portfolio and their investors, despite the efforts of the portfolio managers and service providers to adopt technologies, processes and practices intended to mitigate these risks and protect the security of their computer systems, software, networks and other technology assets, as well as the confidentiality, integrity and availability of information belonging to the portfolios and their investors.
WHAT ARE THE RISKS OF BITCOIN ETFS DISCUSSED?
All investments involve risks, including possible loss of principal. Before you invest, for more complete information about the Fund and this offering, you should carefully read the Fund’s prospectus.
The Bitcoin ETFs (“Bitcoin ETFs” hereafter) registered under the Securities Act of 1933, which have been discussed, are not an investment company registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 (1940 Act), and therefore are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds or ETFs registered under the 1940 Act. The Bitcoin ETFs are not a commodity pool for purposes of the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and accordingly are not subject to the regulatory protections afforded by the CEA.
Bitcoin ETFs hold only bitcoin and cash and are not suitable for all investors. Bitcoin ETFs are not a diversified investment and, therefore, are expected to be more volatile than other investments, such as an investment in a more broadly diversified portfolio. An investment in Bitcoin ETFs is not intended as a complete investment plan.
An investment in Bitcoin ETFs is subject to market risk with respect to the digital asset markets. The trading price of the bitcoin held by the Fund may go up and down, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. The value of the Bitcoin ETF’s Shares relates directly to the value of bitcoins, which has been in the past, and may continue to be, highly volatile and subject to fluctuations due to a number of factors. Extreme volatility in the future, including substantial, sustained, or rapid declines in the trading prices of bitcoin, could have a material adverse effect on the value of the Shares and the Shares could lose all or substantially all of their value.
Competitive pressures may negatively affect the ability of Bitcoin ETFs to garner substantial assets and achieve commercial success.
Digital assets represent a new and rapidly evolving industry, and the value of shares of Bitcoin ETFs depends on the acceptance of bitcoin. Due to the unregulated nature and lack of transparency surrounding the operations of digital asset exchanges, which may experience fraud, manipulation, security failures or operational problems, as well as the wider bitcoin market, the value of bitcoin and, consequently, the value of the Shares may be adversely affected, causing losses to Shareholders.
Digital asset markets in the U.S. exist in a state of regulatory uncertainty, and adverse legislative or regulatory developments could significantly harm the value of bitcoin or the Shares of Bitcoin ETFs, such as by banning, restricting, or imposing onerous conditions or prohibitions on the use of bitcoins, mining activity, digital wallets, the provision of services related to trading and custodying bitcoin, the operation of the Bitcoin network, or the digital asset markets generally.
The Index price used to calculate the value of the bitcoin held by Bitcoin ETFs has a limited performance history and may be volatile, adversely affecting the value of the Shares. Moreover, the Index Administrator could experience system failures or errors. Errors in the Index data, computations and/or construction may occur from time to time and may not be identified and/or corrected for a period of time or at all, which may have an adverse impact on the Bitcoin ETFs and the Shareholders. A temporary or permanent “fork” could adversely affect the value of the Shares. Shareholders should not expect to receive the benefits of any forks or “airdrops.”
Bitcoin ETFs are a passive investment vehicle and are not actively managed, meaning they does not manage the portfolio to sell bitcoin at times when its price is high, or acquire bitcoin at low prices in the expectation of future price increases. Also, Bitcoin ETFs do not use any hedging techniques to attempt to reduce the risks of losses resulting from bitcoin price decreases. Bitcoin ETFs are not leveraged products and do not utilize leverage, derivatives or similar instruments or transactions. Bitcoin ETF Shares are not interests or obligations of the Fund’s Sponsor or its affiliates and are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other governmental agency.
The amount of bitcoin represented by each Share will decrease over the life of the Bitcoin ETFs due to the sales of bitcoin necessary to pay the Sponsor’s Fee and other Fund expenses. Without increases in the price of bitcoin sufficient to compensate for that decrease, the price of the Shares will also decline, and you will lose money on your investment in Shares.
Security threats to the Bitcoin ETF’s account at the Bitcoin Custodian or Prime Broker could result in the halting of Fund operations and a loss of Fund assets or damage to the reputation of the Fund, each of which could result in a reduction in the value of the Shares.
If the process of creation and redemption of Creation Units encounters any unanticipated difficulties, the possibility for arbitrage transactions by Authorized Participants intended to keep the price of the Shares closely linked to the price of bitcoin may not exist and, as a result, the price of the Shares may fall or otherwise diverge from NAV.



